Five years ago, Francis Fukayama bet Bret Stephens $100 that the Iraq would be a "mess." Stephens writes that Fukayama has conceded that it isn't:
No matter what happens in November, the war in Iraq will not be brought to an end by either Barack Obama or John McCain. The war in Iraq is over. We've won.
Exhibit A for my claim: Francis Fukuyama has agreed to write me a check for $100.