Will the House pass Obamacare this time?

Obamacare passed the House the first time with a narrow 220-215 margin. Since then, three of the 'yes' votes have left the House, one 'no' vote has left, and another 'yes' vote, the sole Republican to support the bill, has announced that he will vote 'no' next time. That leaves the score at 216-215 in favor of the House's version of Obamacare. However, a critical complication is that, to support the reconciliation approach, the House will need to approve this time the unpopular Senate version of the bill complete with the "Cornhusker kickback," the "Louisiana purchase," and the abortion language that Rep. Stupak and his ten or so associates have said they will oppose. Further, there are a lot of House Democrats in districts in which Obama is not popular. Michael Barone explains:

[M]ore than 40 House Democrats represent districts which John McCain carried. Most voted no in November and would presumably be hurt by switching to yes now. Moreover, Mr. Obama's job approval now hovers around 48%, five points lower than his winning percentage in 2008. His approval on health care is even lower.

Another 32 House Democrats represent districts where Mr. Obama won between 50% and 54% of the vote, and where his approval is likely to be running under 50% now. That leaves just 176 House Democrats from districts where Mr. Obama's approval rating is not, to borrow a real-estate term, under water. That's 40 votes less than the 216 needed.

To pass it, the Democrats will need to get creative, possibly like this.

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